I’ll update the live playoff odds throughout the game—considering the status of both Eagles and Cowboys games—using a complicated mathematical process known as multiplication.
Feel free to hang out with me here, or on Twitter, or not at all. Go Cowboys.
It's not over yet, but I wanted to take a minute to thank y'all for hanging out with me here. This was a lot of fun, and something I'll want to try again next time the Cowboys have a game. (There's a 4% chance it will be next week!)
So if I understand this correctly, it's basically just a chat room. Any of you can comment and the rest of us can see it. And I'll be posting playoff% updates throughout the game.
Back down to 28% almost immediately after that 41% completion from Wentz to Burnett. There are going to be huge swings in win probability from now through the end of the Eagles game.
I take back all the laughing from when the Giants picked you. You deserved to be taken #6 overall. Show the world why. (Note: I reserve the right to disavow all this if you fail us.)
Huge sack on Carson Wentz stifles what was becoming a concerning drive in the Eagles game. They had advanced the ball to the Giants 43 before the 10-yard loss.
Let's talk about the Eagles game for a second. If the Eagles beat the Giants, the Cowboys have no shot of making the playoffs. FPI sees the Eagles as 70% favorites, meaning the WAS-DAL result only matters for that remaining 30% window of probability. Dallas is a 91% favorite in its own game, so that brings their playoff odds to 26%. In *most* scenarios where the Eagles lose today, the Cowboys win the NFC East.
So basically, the Eagles game is the one that's more up in the air. The Cowboys could always fall to another early deficit (ugh) and things could change very quickly. But from where we sit right now, the Eagles game is the bigger deal.
I know this makes me a bad fan, but I’m torn between wanting to make the playoffs and also wanting Jerry to learn a painful lesson. I guess I’ll take the playoffs.
Yes! Just realized the Vikings are out of the 5 seed picture. The NFC East winner will face the loser of tonight's SEA-SF showdown. The Seahawks are the slight "favorites" for the 5 seed, per FPI, at 56%.
EPA boxscore highlights: Dak at -0.3 on dropbacks, but 1.7 on rushes, probably because of the sacks. Zeke at 1.8, Coop at 5.5 (1.37/play!), Cobb at 4.1
It's not over yet, but I wanted to take a minute to thank y'all for hanging out with me here. This was a lot of fun, and something I'll want to try again next time the Cowboys have a game. (There's a 4% chance it will be next week!)
It’s been fun, Daniel. Appreciate you making this and we’ll have a lot to discuss in the offseason with a new coach and all. Should be fun.
50-50!
Back down to 1 in 3 after the failed fourth-down conversion by the Giants. Big swings in playoff probability here
Hopefully a scoring drive for NYG and us tilts that even further.
What a bizarre season this was. A team with +110 point differential has almost never (maybe actually never?) gone 8-8.
It's happened a few times but it's very hard to do
This stat depresses me lol
Yep. That's it. Cowboys playoff odds are down below 0.1% after the latest Eagles touchdown.
But our Pythag Win % > Theirs. Gonna be fun when our close game record regresses to the mean and we go 12-4 (I’m actually serious on this).
Cowboys playoff odds back up to 36% thanks to honorary Cowboy Golden Tate!
The Cowboys pulled off a great touchdown drive and the Eagles just allowed a game-tying field goal.
The Cowboys playoff odds are back to their highest of the day: 35%
Still need a few more breaks in the Eagles game before we can start to feel like it's an even fight.
Ohhhhh boy.
Long way to go!
It’s really gonna happen, isn’t it?
Still underdogs!
Victory blue!
So if I understand this correctly, it's basically just a chat room. Any of you can comment and the rest of us can see it. And I'll be posting playoff% updates throughout the game.
That Daniel Jones fumble is devastating.
Cowboys playoff odds have plummeted to 8%.
*cries*
Still a chance!
Yeah, not over yet
Not fun...
ouch
This next Giants drive will be very consequential. Eagles currently at 67% odds to win and end the Cowboys season.
44% y'all
Back down to 28% almost immediately after that 41% completion from Wentz to Burnett. There are going to be huge swings in win probability from now through the end of the Eagles game.
^ 41-yard completion
"Never tell me the odds"
Yeah Han wouldn't like this thread much
Posted this below, but we're back to 38% playoff odds after the 68-yard Saquon run. We're back in it!
Cowboys playoff odds: 38% after the Eagles punt
We're on a rocket path to plausible
Keep in mind everything happening in the Eagles game right now is about four times as important as what's happening in the Cowboys game
Most excellent!
It happened. An Eagles touchdown brings the Cowboys playoff odds down to 1 in 5. Save us Danny Dimes
I take back all the laughing from when the Giants picked you. You deserved to be taken #6 overall. Show the world why. (Note: I reserve the right to disavow all this if you fail us.)
Amen.
In saquon we trust?
That would require him to matter.
^^^
Never
I live in constant fear of the Eagles scoring a touchdown. They're about to start another drive just behind the midfield line.
Cowboys playoff odds: 22%
Good news is eagles seem insistent on running on 2nd and long/medium situations.
Huge sack on Carson Wentz stifles what was becoming a concerning drive in the Eagles game. They had advanced the ball to the Giants 43 before the 10-yard loss.
Two big events just improved the picture for the Cowboys: Eagles fail to convert on 4th and 7, and Cowboys get a turnover courtesy of Jaylon Smith.
Cowboys playoff odds: 34% (!)
Cowboys playoff odds have dipped back down to 29% after the Eagles got the ball back following a Giants punt.
And then Elliott's injury, which could lead to more passes (passes are good, right?)
Passes are good, confirmed. (Hope he's OK.)
Oh yes, for sure that too
Let's talk about the Eagles game for a second. If the Eagles beat the Giants, the Cowboys have no shot of making the playoffs. FPI sees the Eagles as 70% favorites, meaning the WAS-DAL result only matters for that remaining 30% window of probability. Dallas is a 91% favorite in its own game, so that brings their playoff odds to 26%. In *most* scenarios where the Eagles lose today, the Cowboys win the NFC East.
So basically, the Eagles game is the one that's more up in the air. The Cowboys could always fall to another early deficit (ugh) and things could change very quickly. But from where we sit right now, the Eagles game is the bigger deal.
Gut feeling has the eagles odds higher than that, iwbh...
It's nice they're playing on the road, with heavy injuries, and against a quarterback that's kind of a wild card right now. But yeah
,,,
Dak loves stiff arming Washington.
Golden Tate is forgiven for all of
His past travesties.
Not until a win
Gmen driving...
Anybody else feel dirty rooting for them? Haha
ooooook so apparently dak can throw downfield today (so why haven't we been doing that?)
makes you think
*clapping noises intensify*
NFC East doing the NFL proud in both games sheesh
I know this makes me a bad fan, but I’m torn between wanting to make the playoffs and also wanting Jerry to learn a painful lesson. I guess I’ll take the playoffs.
Cobb with the $250,000 catch!
SAQUON!
SAQOUN. MATTERS.
COME ON DANIEL
Cmon Daniel.
that was a bad throw....
hey,
have to re sign Quinn
He's very good. Been at the top of the Pass Rush Win Rate leaderboards all year
I do wonder how responsible he is for us being so susceptible to screens, ie getting too far upfield?
Playing his way out of Dallas sadly, shame we wasted this pitiful year.
Hello Daniel
Dalton!
Worst outcome is a Cowboys and Eagles win. Can’t have that Daniel. Use your spreadsheets to make sure it’s Cowboys win/Eagles loss or the opposite.
This has been the most likely single outcome all day, unfortunately.
Le sigh, I know
The Cowboys defense getting turnovers? The apocalypse is here!
Which only means one thing: Cowboys will be NFC East champs!
Unfortunately a Daniel Jones sack on 3rd and 8 just lowered our playoff odds to 22%, even after the Dallas fumble recovery.
How're you calculating the playoff odds?
Using FPI's live win probability model for each game: https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401128033
The Cowboys playoff odds are just the Eagles chances of losing * the Cowboys odds of winning.
Basically everything that happens in the Eagles game at this point is about three times as important as what's happening in ours.
Just assumed that holding was on Tyron even tho he’s inactive.
:(
If we want to win get out to a fast start make Philly start looking at the scores
Sign me up
reverse the pressure
Cowboys-Seahawks first round playoffs in the establish the run game of the century
Yes! Just realized the Vikings are out of the 5 seed picture. The NFC East winner will face the loser of tonight's SEA-SF showdown. The Seahawks are the slight "favorites" for the 5 seed, per FPI, at 56%.
We beat the Seahawks, beat the packers, then lose in the NFCG and Garrett gets extended because life is a comedy.
Who’s ready for 15 first down Zeke runs today?
Being a diehard Cowboys fan and a numbers nerd means constantly rooting for your team to win and confirm all the wrong priors.
Can’t wait to watch this team accidentally fall backwards into the playoffs today.
Week 16: Eagles celebrate division title
Week 17: Eagles stripped of division title, exit playoff picture in shame
And there was much rejoicing
EPA boxscore highlights: Dak at -0.3 on dropbacks, but 1.7 on rushes, probably because of the sacks. Zeke at 1.8, Coop at 5.5 (1.37/play!), Cobb at 4.1
Yes! Thanks William
Ugh, deleted my comment by mistakes. And no problem, man. Probably all for not though. Danny Dimes fumbles man...
If I was Shepard I’d sue Daniel for emotional distress after this game.
It’s happening!
Eagles punt!
How are we feeling, fellow nerds?
The Cowboys still need some breaks in the Eagles game, but this is about the best I've felt all day
Should we resign cobb?
YES!
We have a tie game lads.
ITS HAPPENING!
GIANTS BIG PLAY AND ROUGHING THE PASSER PENALTY
Remember when it was enjoyable to watch this offense?
I wasn't alive for the Landry days
Either Kellen is crazy inconsistent with PA usage or Garrett wants to sabotage him.
It's a shame we aren't allowed to cover their TE. Seems like it gives them an unfair advantage, but rules are rules.
Kris Richanelli have to go.
Truth.
Giants offense makes me sad, Jones just underthrew shepard with a throw that could’ve put them in FG range.
are we still not sure on Daks shoulder , looking from the play calling?
Super tough to say, but I imagine he's in a lot of pain at least
Please do this next season too
I really like this discussion thread setup. It's a keeper for sure.
I enjoy the live percentage updates on the playoffs haha
Its also cool seeing you getting more interactive from all the great work you do
Thanks so much! I think this whole project is going to be a lot of fun.